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Death of the early season optimism (Open Game Thread # 7: Bulls at Phoenix Suns)

Judging by this whirlwind week of potential lineup changes culminating in Skiles' decision to bench Tyrus for El Flopso, I have to wonder what Paxson is thinking. Because his coach is basically saying this team's no good, and their 'core' is never going to get them anywhere.

Just look at these quotes alone, highlighted by calling his team 'fragile':

We've over-dribbled a little bit. We've been tentative on our shots. Noce generally is not tentative. We're hoping he opens the floor more to get the other guys going than anything else.

No, Noce definitely isn't tentative, he's a chucker. Which is perfect coming off the bench, but that's a lesser issue.

What gets me more is that Skiles has seen enough evidence in six games to undo any optimism we had that this season will be any improvement over last year. That Deng and Gordon would mature and improve, that Tyrus would become a force. It's all been shot down. Already.

Where Paxson has made all indications (by his non-movement and offering contract extensions) that this team would improve internally, Skiles has called it out as bullshit.

The real question is whether he's right: If Hinrich, Deng and Gordon really need a wild-eyed Argentine to get them going, then they're not that good. If Tyrus Thomas can't start on this squad now, he's not really being counted on to be a major contributor.

The only way I'm behind this change is if it's for Phoenix (because of their poor rebounding and high-paced offense), and only Phoenix. That's definitely not happening (if anything it'll be several months), so this message means more than the result of tonight's game (9:30PM, TNT). They could come out hitting shots, or Noc will be flailing away on a late close-out while Marion hits his fifth three, or both. I hate what this change means for the team in the big-picture, whether it's a 'spark' or not.

Blogging with the Enemy:
Bright Side of the Sun

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oh, forgot to mention
for every Bulls loss on this roadtrip, I will ban one unruly user. I think it'll make us all feel better...unless you're that particular user, but the people I'm thinking of love it when the Bulls lose anyway, so they'll be fine.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 5:48 PM CST   0 recs

hmmm
that may make some of us want to see the team loose. (Just kidding.  Really).

You really think Noce starting is an indication of Skiles/Paxson not seeing eye to eye?  That's a different take on this than I've seen anywhere.  

I'd just wish they'd put Smith in instead of Wallace.

by KT on Nov 15, 2007 6:28 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

From Paxson's statements
and other information, it's seems likely that Paxson and Skiles disagree on several issues.  How much Tyrus and Thabo should have played last year and how much they should play this year.  How little Duhon should play.  They disagreed over Thomas v. Aldridge.  I've always thought Paxson sees the big picture, and I sometimes whether Skiles can see past the next two minutes of a game.  But,that's a  common problem with even successful coaches.

by Scotter on Nov 15, 2007 6:40 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Oh, I know they disagree
I'm just not sure if the Noce starting is a sign of it.  I don't think their joined at the hips, and someday, I wouldn't be surprised if Pax tells Skiles to take a hike, but I'm just not sure if this is a sign of a major disagreement.

by KT on Nov 15, 2007 7:03 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

tough to say Noc is a lightning rod
for debate, considering Pax gave him a 5-year contract.

I mean more that Pax seems invested in Deng and Gordon, where we have Skiles telling us they're soft.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:06 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

what makes you think there is disagreement
can you expound?  I don't really see that.  Also, did you guys notice Thabo escaped being inactivated?
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 7:28 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

It's not an explicit disagreement
it's just look at different messages from each:

Pax: These guys are our core, heres 100+ million in future contracts

Skiles: These guys are soft, they need Nocioni to spark them.

Would you call Deng and Gordon cornerstones if they fall on their face and need a lineup change in 6 games?

And it goes for the whole team, although maybe Pax really  is trying to package these guys somewhere. Because a contending team doesn't have Andres Nocioni as their starting power forward, and therefore these aren't contenders. I would've liked more time before making that concession.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:49 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

The Bulls are soft?! YOU'RE soft!
Starting Noc at this point in the season to jolt a discombobulated group does not mean that this team cannot contend.  Frankly, starting Noc in game 40 would be a much more worrisome event.

Look, no one likes this, but if they're playing well and .500 by New Year's, who's to say they still don't play in the ECF?

Weren't you the one saying you'd say its early until it isn't?  A lineup change in game 7 of the season does not make it game 8 or 9 or 40.

Let's all take a deep breath . . . in . . . hold . . . exhale . . . ahhhh.  

We may well get crushed tonight, but its still early, my peeps, still very very early.

My favorite metric of a team's quality is the often underappreciated "win/loss record"

by preverbal on Nov 15, 2007 9:00 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Who goes first?
vlad?  miserabull?  
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 7:44 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

lets hope it doesn't come to that
Although, like Skiles, I will weigh this one-game sample quite heavily :)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 8:06 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

??I don't "love it" when the Bulls lose.
Is it wrong to get frustrated? to speak up? I'm going to be quiet because I want everybody to be happy even if we get our asses kicked.

by miserabull on Nov 15, 2007 8:31 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

If our collective angst
had any bearing on anything, then by all means agitate.  Since it doesn't, you're just being a smacktard.  I vote for miserabull.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 8:34 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

wow
you were waiting all day for me to respond huh?

by miserabull on Nov 15, 2007 8:35 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

all day? huh?
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 8:40 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah
People shouldn't specify who they'd vote for.  That is mean.
What is the difference between vlad001 and a moron? Only vlad doesn't know the answer.

by bashuck on Nov 15, 2007 9:08 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I still think the Bulls can win the East
they started out bad last year, worse than this, and I still think they'll be better this year.

...i dont really know why I think that, but I do lol

1-5? So what! The Bulls will win the East!

by hongydraw on Nov 15, 2007 5:50 PM CST   0 recs

why so negative?
The Office and the game don't collide tonight.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 5:51 PM CST   0 recs

yah man
Got to watch the debate, too.  

by Freethefro on Nov 15, 2007 8:46 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

The ridiculous thing...
...is that Ty has been one of our better players in this horrid six-game stretch. Even though inconsistent, he's certainly been better than Wallace, and in a lot of ways more effective than Hinrich, Gordon and even Deng.

by BenGo07 on Nov 15, 2007 6:00 PM CST   0 recs

Being on TNT worked well for the Bulls
last week...

Can't wait to hear what their biggest fan, Charles, has to say tonight.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Nov 15, 2007 6:01 PM CST   0 recs

Skiles
I don't think this change means he's given up on the growth of the core.

I just think he knows they're still young and can use a spark like Noc to get those guys going.  

Also worth mentioning is that they're very comfortable when Noc is at the 4. They didn't play much together when Tyrus was starting at the 4 so maybe it's a case of being familiar with each other?

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 6:29 PM CST   0 recs

Are you extrapolating those 55 wins
from the 1 out of 7 that they have so far?

Exactly how many games do they need to look totally lost and confused in before it becomes necessary for something new to be tried?

1 more game and they will have played 1/10 of their schedule.

by rexisourqb on Nov 15, 2007 6:54 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

i'd say 20-25 games
and the 'change' is then a trade. Which may be coming anyway.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:03 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Since when
was starting Tyrus supposed to guarantee the Bulls 55 wins and title contention?

That's unfair to the man. He is still really young and will most likely be a major part of this team in the future unless he gets traded

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 8:01 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I didn't think it was that subtle
The Bulls get better (i.e. more wins) by improving. Improving means playing better players more. Tyrus Thomas this season should eclipse Nocioni, and pretty much already has.

So not only will Tyrus not be starting, apparently Gordon and Deng aren't improving either, else they wouldn't need 'the spark'. That's my point: we've already seen what they can do as is...going into the season I wanted to see more.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 8:05 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

They don't necessarily get more wins by improving
if everybody else improves as well.  
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 9:01 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

This has been a painful week.
People who know me avoid the topic of the Bulls knowing how upset I am about this horrible start.  I'm hoping, despite being against Vegas odds, we have something to smile about at 12:05 AM

by chgobr on Nov 15, 2007 6:40 PM CST   0 recs

Why not bench deng for nocioni instead?
I barely notice that Luol is on the floor most of the time anyway.  That is except for the one play at the beginning of each game where they pass it to him in the post and the play always ends with a turnover...

Maybe bringing him in off the bench where his role is clearly designated as a shooter would help him.  Meanwhile the starting lineup gets somebody who won't disappear.  

This won't happen, mostly because Luol was crowned as the untouchable in a Kobe trade, and everyone would look silly if he got benched shortly after.

by rexisourqb on Nov 15, 2007 6:44 PM CST   0 recs

people that matter didn't make him untouchable
And you're right, he's still dissapearing for major portions of games, so he's a candidate to go as well.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:05 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Before we start jumping off of buildings
one thing to remember: none of the core should be considered a finished product yet.  These guys are still young.  Noc is the only guy I would consider anywhere near "done" in his evolution as a player, and I don't consider him part of the core.  

Does anybody else remember before the bulls went on their first run how much angst was built up by not being able to beat the Pistons for three years?  There was even talk during the first championship season of blowing the team up if they couldn't get over the hump.  Everybody needs to relax a little bit and let these guys play.  If Tyrus continues to play and improve like he has shown he can now, there will be no keeping him off of the court.

Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 6:53 PM CST   0 recs

meh that's what we said last year
And I don't remember the late-90s Bulls very well, but I assume having Michael Jordan made the angst a little easier.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:02 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

It was a lot worse
Jordan was like Peyton Manning (before he won his ring, obviously) and Dan Marino combined with the "greatest not to win a championship" stuff.  Young Jordan was better than any of the guys playing today by far and the league was much more star driven than it is today.  The bulls got to the conference championship twice and were even up 2-1 one time.  And Pippen had his headache, and Grant had his lisp and his goggles and was called soft, too.  They even tried starting Stacey King over him a few times.  Unfortunately, until you win it all everybody is going to question how good and tough you are.  
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 7:36 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Speaking of jumping - - at least
we are not the Knicks.  We do have a young good core verses Marbury in the locker room.  

by chgobr on Nov 15, 2007 7:06 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Please get
a win tonight. I don't think I can take much more whining.
Racecar spelled backwards is racecar.

by sue369 on Nov 15, 2007 7:07 PM CST   0 recs

A win is guaranteed
Have no fear Sue, we seem to show up for the big games on national television. They said we couldn't beat the Pistons and we would get clobbered. Guess what? They beat the Pistons. It will be a tremendous effort, and the Bulls will play good spirited defense and beat the Suns. It won't be a high scoring affair. Look for  a great effort from the Bulls bench. forget about those "nattering nabobs of negativity," to borrow a famous line by Spiro Agnew.

by SlamDunk on Nov 15, 2007 7:28 PM CST   0 recs

Noce
Hey Matt, at least with Nocioni starting now you can't say the Bulls overpaid a bench player. ;)

by Mike Aparicio on Nov 15, 2007 7:45 PM CST   0 recs

heh
Good point :)

I admit I'm reaching a bit. But then I remember: Nocioni is starting for us. It's not a good feeling even after rationalization.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 7:50 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

A little bit off topic, but still interesting
I notice that much of the discussion tonight is focusing around Noce being put in the starting line up (hope that at least means that Skiles has given up on starting Duhon over Gordon).  Personally, I'm still holding out hope that it's Wallace who gets benched and not T Squared.  Anyways, was playing around with the comparison tool over at www.basketball-reference.com.  I compared a favorite target of many here, Captain Kirk, to Kidd and Nash through age 26.  I like Kirk and, especially after reading Hollinger's piece last season about big pg's, think the Bulls should keep him around for awhile no matter what else they do.  Anyways, Kirk compares very favorably to Kidd and Nash through age 26.  While Nash played fewer minutes and Kidd about 100 more games, if you compare by per 48, Hinrich's numbers are up there with either of them in many categories.  The most shocking to me, is that he has the lowest turnover/48 of the 3.  Take a look for yourselves.  http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm.cgi?req=1&cum=1&p1=kiddja01&y1=2000&p2=na shst01&y2=2001&p3=hinriki01&y3=2007

by snley on Nov 15, 2007 8:30 PM CST   0 recs

Chuck wisdom at Spurs/Mavs halftime
on lineups: "There's a reason the guy was on the bench in the first place, remember that"

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 8:35 PM CST   0 recs

I was hoping you were watching
when I heard him say that!
"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Nov 15, 2007 8:40 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

just hit me
God, living on Chicago time when the Bulls play 7:30 time over here must really be hard.

Do you guys really stay up till the game is done over there?

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 9:06 PM CST   0 recs

I'm lucky this time
We have tomorrow off because Oklahoma is celebrating it's 100th year of statehood.

But usuall with the late games, I don't make it to the end.  It makes the next day too rough.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Nov 15, 2007 9:17 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I've wondered this too.
It gets compounded when you realize they never get the second game started on time either. Wouldn't it make more sense to start the first TNT game earlier than the norm, rather than make PHX wait 1hr+, and everyone east that much more?

by marionette on Nov 15, 2007 9:26 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Exactly
One of the fortunate things of living in LA is that an early game is at 430. Regular games start at 530 and the latest is 730.

So convenient.

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 9:28 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

We have the same
time until Halloween now. But the TNT (and ESPN?) games are 1/2 hour later still....6:00 and 8:30 (really 8:45).

by marionette on Nov 15, 2007 9:52 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

i hate being in the eastern time zone
shows don't come on until 8, if you want to see the news or sportscenter, it doesn't come on until 11.  I would love to be on the west coast and roll out of bed at 10 am on a sunday and have a football game ready to go.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 9:53 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

There are
compensations.  New York traders don't have to be in until 9:30, while out West traders have already been at work two hours by the time I even roll out of bed.

by alec on Nov 15, 2007 9:32 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I can't make it through the whole game
I start work between 7 am and 7:30 am.  Friday's are hard enough at work (1/3 to 1/2 the people out) without being beat.  And I'm frequently all alone in my row.  The last thing I want to do is fall asleep and have the big boss stop at my desk!

by KT on Nov 15, 2007 9:41 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Almost
Game Time!!  They better be ready or else the next to drop is BG...

by tyrus4prez on Nov 15, 2007 9:22 PM CST   0 recs

This
Is very cool. I'd much rather watch Mavs, Spurs...

by gobulls1124 on Nov 15, 2007 9:34 PM CST   0 recs

the spurs and mavs need to hurry the f up
1-5? So what! The Bulls will win the East!

by hongydraw on Nov 15, 2007 9:40 PM CST   0 recs

Bulls will do well enough
against Suns tonight, even with Noc starting (Ha). I won't guarantee a win, but I can't believe with all the time off (for hard practices) they'll lack the effort to transition D, defend the 3 (Suns drive maybe less than Bulls do), and rebound. Doing those three things keeps you in the game, at minimum, against them. And Noc WILL take it to the rack, if no one else will! Gotta make some shots, or a lot of free throws to win, though. This won't be like MIL game. Somebody's gonna score 100.

by marionette on Nov 15, 2007 9:45 PM CST   0 recs

More Kobe rumors...
they just said on TNT that LA is talking with detwat?
Is it spring training yet?

by Bluelou on Nov 15, 2007 9:47 PM CST   0 recs

For the Bulls to have a chance:
  • they need to get the calls. All season they can't get a single call under the basket and unless that changes they won't beat many quality teams this year.
  • they need to rough up Nash. They need to be physical with him and prevent him from running in circles and picking teams apart like he always does.
  • they need to get inside Amare's head. He has all the talent in the world but he is a mental midget. If they actively attack him it may be enough to cause him to implode and beat his own team with his ego like he does every year against the Spurs.
What's the difference between a steakhouse and the United Center? One serves people steak, the other is filled with a bunch of dead Bulls.

by vlad001 on Nov 15, 2007 9:52 PM CST   0 recs

albert and collins?
what?
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 9:55 PM CST   0 recs

who'd you expect?
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 9:56 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I don't remember
both doing the same game since Collins was canned. Collins and Harlan, Albert and the Czar/Kerr,
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 9:58 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

albert and collins
with Kerrrrrr in the middle
Is it spring training yet?

by Bluelou on Nov 15, 2007 9:57 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

isnt everyone
glad that we started noc tonight?

by Mike C on Nov 15, 2007 9:59 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

glad Nocioni was in
to inhale Marion's fumes.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 9:59 PM CST   0 recs

i love Noc
but I am ready for Tyrus to come in.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 9:59 PM CST   0 recs

This is just wrong already
Hope things get fixed before this mess gets outta hand

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 10:00 PM CST   0 recs

bwaha oh man
whoa. 3 misses. Gave up a offensive rebound. Got the ball stolen from behind.

Spark.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 10:01 PM CST   0 recs

Maybe if the Bulls are lucky . . .
Marion's arm will get tired from taking all the wide-open jumpers he'll get tonight.

by Big D on Nov 15, 2007 10:01 PM CST   0 recs

before this mess gets outta hand
too late...
Is it spring training yet?

by Bluelou on Nov 15, 2007 10:02 PM CST   0 recs

brick fest
Is it spring training yet?

by Bluelou on Nov 15, 2007 10:03 PM CST   0 recs

Nocioni is the post up answer!
Keep Nash on him.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 10:04 PM CST   0 recs

Are the refs even in the building?
Neither team is getting calls.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 10:06 PM CST   0 recs

other than
the shitshow that is noc the defense has been pretty good

by Mike C on Nov 15, 2007 10:08 PM CST   0 recs

agreed
even the Suns are cooling off and now the Bulls are starting to hit...

Might there be hope here?

Is it spring training yet?

by Bluelou on Nov 15, 2007 10:10 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Love the Noc hate...
it never gets old.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 10:10 PM CST   0 recs

I actually like Noc
He's just a victim of circumstance: signs the extenstion (why wouldn't he?), gets thrust into the starting lineup (and predictably goes hog-wild) when he shouldn't be...

by bleargh on Nov 15, 2007 10:12 PM CST to parent up   0 recs