Blog a Bull

One Way to Go

MPG — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:01:18 -0000

Pax needs to make moves.

We've got a crowded back court, a crowded front court, and a glut of forwards. We have very good players (Gordon and Deng) we need to sign, and good players (Hinrich and Nocioni) that we've signed for too much money. We're also the youngest team in the league and we lack a viable, 1st scoring option.

Enter the New Jersey Nets.

It's no secret what the soon-to-be Brooklynites want. They want LeBron in 2010. They want contracts that expire in 2010, in order to collect the googolplex of dollars, pesos and euros it will take to woo his unstoppable greatness. They also want a certain vein-bulging small forward, Andres Nocioni, according www.hoopshype.com.

I'm proposing Vinsanity and Stromile Swift for Andres Nocioni and Larry "This Way to Lebron!" Hughes. The numbers works: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=356~2456~136~829&teams=17~17~4~4&te=&cash. Stromile's contract is up in one year. He's outta here, but might be a decent backup for Noah if the rumors about Aaron Gray's paramilitary summer prove to be false.

I know that Vince's numbers have declined. And that he's oft injured. But I'm saying the dude can still score, and you can still drop him the ball with the shot clock winding down. At the very least, I'm saying he brings a heck of a lot more that Mr. Hughes. (Who brings nothing.)

Then trade Hinrich for Camby and here's what we've got:

Rose, Carter, Deng, Thomas and Camby as your starters, with Gordon, Sefolosha, Gooden and Noah as your bench.

Commence flaming me now.

Nets thinking about Nocioni

bull83 — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:01:11 -0000

Honestly, if the Nets want so much Lebron James, I don’t understand why they are considering trade for Nocioni. But still, the NJ.com is reporting that the Nets are thinking about getting Noce (please God, make it happen).

The Nets' payroll restrictions are a bit more flexible than agents were led to believe when the free-agent market opened.

For example, the Nets believe they still remain in the running for the likes of Eduardo Najera and Keyon Dooling -- two of the very few players they agree deserve three-year commitments -- but not so much for guys they think are worth only two (Mickael Pietrus, etc.).

"I don't think the two years is a hard and fast rule," one agent said yesterday, remaining anonymous so as not to hurt the Nets' ability to compete in the market. "And that's especially true if they can make a trade."

They are pursuing that as well, with Andres Nocioni being one of their primary targets. The veteran forward is available, GMs throughout the league confirm, for one reason: Chicago needs to slash payroll in order to give Luol Deng the $55-60 million to re-sign.

Though Nocioni has four more years left on his contract, the numbers descend (from $8.0M to $6.6M), and he could be a catalytic practice element the Nets need in their gym.

If it's true, they would make us a favor, because Noce's contract is bad for someone that isn't a starter. So, what could we get from the Nets if they really want to make this trade? Vince Carter, or do you think he’s like McGrady and he’s already OLD (31) for us?

Let’s speculate again…

Why Do People Say Gordon and Deng had an off-year?

CainandAbull — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:28:57 -0000

I am a new user to this site, but it is killing me why everyone thinks Ben Gordon and Luol Deng had an off-year. I am trying to form my own opinion and every drop off I see in their production can be attributed to minutes (their PER 48 is almost identical to the year before)

Was everyone expecting more than last year (ie, continued development?)

Can anyone help shed light on the subject?

An ode to the intermediate strategy

OldSkoolSloan — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:26:37 -0000

Many fans here at Blogabull seem desperate to trade away some of our assets (Noce, Hinrich, Gordon, Thomas, etc.) to bring in complimentary pieces for Derrick Rose and the evolving New World Order at the United Center.

Some want to trade for a veteran: A proven winner. Someone to push the Bulls over the edge (edge of what is my question).

Others want build around Rose: Bring in a young, rising forward. Someone he can play with for a career. A beautiful tag-team to guarantee six more banners over eight short years.

I’m of the opinion that Pax should do what he can to resign Deng and Gordon and then turn the phone off for the summer. Go play golf. Take Vinny to a barber. Chill.

My reasoning: First, the objective is to buy low and sell high. Almost without exception (I include Gooden, Noah and maybe Thabo as exceptions), everyone on the Bulls roster is coming off a crappy season and their trade value is low. Simply allowing our guys to return to their average (not even improve) would raise their trade value. Second, as great as we all hope Derrick Rose will be, there is NO WAY in my mind that he could handle full point guard duties for the Bulls right off the bat. He’ll need to split significant minutes with Hinrich, Thabo and Gordon in the backcourt. I know Kirk is quickly becoming Chris Duhon 2009, but we need him to provide stability at the point (when I think of Gordon and Thabo, I think of many things, but stability is not one of them). And yes, I know Kirk’s turnover ratio sucked last season, but I’m assuming a general return to average here. Third, I just don’t know who we’d go after. If it’s trading for a frontcourt big (which seems to be most of the proposals), I can’t think of a serious player out there who’s been mentioned as on the block. Brand seems like he’s staying home (or close to home) and I like the Lamar Odom deals, but they seem the realm of fanboi fantasy.

I’m really looking toward the All-Star break. With half a season under our belt, we’ll have a better idea of what we’re working with on our roster. Is Thomas the second coming (not helping) of Sean Kemp or a bust worth trading? Can we get by without Kirk? Can Gordon and Rose live in the same backcourt without it looking like the Big Brim Bar in I’m Gonna Get You Sucka! In addition, other teams will have had a chance to assess their talent in comparison to their conference and may be looking to pick up late-season/playoff defensive help (again, my dream scenario to shop Noce and Hinrich). Plus, Gooden’s contract is a pretty sweet expiring deal at the end of next season and we may catch some down-on-their luck squad willing to cash in their chips and make a Grizzlies-like move (warning, wild speculation: could Dallas realize they don’t have the mojo and look to move Dirk and want to shave cap space?).

Sometimes winning in the NBA is about being at the right place at the right time (see Lakers, L.A. and Celtics, Boston) and I think the Bulls are in the right place (lots of nice young players that could be moved) but I think next season’s trading deadline is the right time. With the squad we have, I think we could make some noise in the East, continue to accumulate experience for our talented young guys and be in a championship position down the road. Being on the cusp of the Finals with Larry Hughes’ contract coming off the books for the 2010 season could be a great place to be.

Is pax, tyrus busting our balls?

PTBALLER1523 — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 23:57:19 -0000

Does anyone else get the feeling that pax is truly truly gonna fuck this one up. I mean seriously he looks again as if hes gonna stand pat with our roster. Now my question is whether thats a good thing or a bad thing? I think in order to asses that we have to asses what overall acheivement we are expecting out of these Bulls next year. If they are truly rebuilding, then holding onto all our assets while they gain market value might be the best option. However, if these Bulls plan on making the playoffs they might want to reconsider standing pat. They have the pieces to nab a star, and it would only make sense to grab a big man. By grabbing a big man it will still be eating up Tyrus's minutes which seems to be a no-no to most of you. In my opinion i think pax needs to reasess the front court. We will never have a championship caliber team with Tyrus and Joakim manning the front. Its just not realistic. None of those players will ever pose an offensive threat unless its the alley-oop. What pax needs to do is trade gooden and hinrich and even a 1stRd pick for some sort of big man. Its that simple. with a lineup of Rose, gordon, deng, _____, and noah the team could contend right away. But that ____ needs to be filled with a star-studded post scorer. Someone that will make the other teams big man commit. With tyrus and joakim together other teams bigs can play basically carefree defense. Its something that noone has brought up. But im a tyrus lover too, but do you really think that tyrus and joakim can be a formidable frontcourt?

For the crazy trade wizards

Ozzie Montana — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:21:00 -0000

I decided to make this a FanPost even though it's a link, because it's the best link to NBA salary information I came across. Unlike many others, I am a novice when it comes to managing the cap in trade rumors, and this is a great spreadsheet that succinctly lays out every NBA team's salary situation for the next five seasons.

There are other sites like HoopsHype that have the same information, but this is a direct link to the same salary info on Blog-A-Bull, which saves me and others the precious seconds it takes to open another window.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

Credit for the link goes to the pagan cult of Blazers Edge.

Pete Myers Keeps his job

Noce1184 — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:40:09 -0000

Via the MyBulls Newsletter -

Bulls add 26-plus years of head coaching experience

The Chicago Bulls announced today that Del Harris, Bernie Bickerstaff and Bob Ociepka have been hired as assistant coaches on Vinny Del Negro's coaching staff.

In addition, Pete Myers will remain in his current role as assistant coach. In accordance with club policy, terms of the contracts were not announced.

What about Ron Adams? No news on him? Hopefully Harris will bring his vast knowledge from being with Championship teams to this young group and rise the level of professionalism because that's something that I really think needs to be addressed amongst our young guys (Noah, TT, Gray).

Two squad suggestion revisited

California Al — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:55:05 -0000

Posted here early last year about how much I liked the Lakers approach, and, assuming the signings of Deng and Gordon, it looks good again this year for a different reason, along with some of the same ones

Irregular rotations left confused roles, intersquad rivalries, morale issues, etc. Knowing that being on the starting squad only insures PT if your squad performs creates a good dynamic for energetic starts to games. And being on the bench as a squad that knows it's going in with the opportunity to stay in longer with good play also has a great dynamic.

Best nights? Both squads perform, the system works, Bulls win easily. Worst nights? Nothing works on those nights anyway. Normal 50 or so games a year? One of the squads has it in gear and gets the heavy minutes, and we are in position to win 30ish of 50 games because we had the hot unit on the floor longer, or at least didn't stagnate with a lineup that just didn't have it.

This approach keeps the emphasis on team success, not individual. The key to better minutes is for your squad to play winning ball, period. And the only thing keeping you on the bench longer is winning play by the other squad. It's all about winning. Like I said, it worked out great for LA until too many parts went down with injuries. Kobe and LO were real cheerleaders when the 2nd unit went in, and the bench won a LOT of games for the Lakers. The additional benefit of logging fewer minutes for Kobe while still winning didn't hurt either.

The different reason this year is that we need to shop some of the players. No way they can afford everyone if TT, Tabo, Noah etc all materialize in their roles.

Bulls Announce Summer League Roster

MPG — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 00:28:05 -0000

[From the FanPosts. There's reasons to have all these rotation players in the summer league, but it also has me expecting them to win by 40 each night. Otherwise my hemming and/or hawing will start to increase. -ed.]

The full list is here.

Interesting additions: JamesOn Curry, who apparently hasn't pissed away his NBA career [zing! -ed.], Cedric Simmons, a former lottery mid first-round pick with good size and athleticism, Will Daniels, who's a good athlete and had some pretty good numbers at Rhode Island. Interesting omission: the Swiss Mister.

Still, with Noah, Tyrus, and Rose, we may be looking at 3/5 the starting lineup and the debut of VDN. Should be exciting.

Chicago - La Lakers Trade?

ChrisG — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 04:01:22 -0000

I'm just throwing this out there, but it seems relatively fair to me.

Chicago trades:

Kirk Hinrich

Andres Nocioni

LA Trades:

Lamar Odom

Coby Karl

I know the Lakers were frustrated by Odom in the finals this year and are looking for some defensive toughness to surround Kobe with. Nocioni and Hinrich seem to fit the bill. This trade works under the cap rules while Kirk is still in his BYC. Players and picks could obviously be added, but I think the core of this deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Hinrich to Golden State?

illini23 — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:07:30 -0000

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=429942

"If Golden State needs a point guard, the Bulls have long been interested in Al Harrington (whose deal is up in 2010). A straight swap for Kirk Hinrich makes some sense. The salaries match up, but the problem is, Harrington's deal is up in 2010, while Hinrich is on the books till 2012. The Warriors might not want to take on that much salary."

I think that seems like a realistic possibility, and I think Harrington would be a good fit. His contract also expires in 2010, which clears out cap space for us to make a run at D-Wade. Larry Hughes' contract is also up in 2010...

Free agents talks, trade talks, a Spurs run on Ben Gordon and the Bulls...?

JustAnotherFan — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 22:46:48 -0000

Is the negotiation with Gordon and Deng going on? I hope so and they are closed fast. Almost every team is making a move and if Pax take too much time to make decisions we may be out of good options.

The Spurs will make a move on Ben Gordon (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9312). Some teams would like to add Hinrich. Well the opportunities are there but they won't wait forever.

May favorite option is to sign Gordon again and make the HInrinch-Camby trade. I think a Rose-Gordon-Deng-TT/Noah-Camby would be very good.

I don't believe will can really get Brand for hinrich and gooden, but with we do, go for it even if needed be to add a 1st round pick

Hollinger and I Agree Yet Again: Keep Hinrich

JSlakov — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 19:32:34 -0000

I'm not sure if I've brought it up here, but I've been thinking since we got Rose that we should keep Hinrich and play him as shooting guard and someone who can share ball handling duties to give Rose breaks. Apparently John Hollinger agrees:

Scooter (Chicago): Please tell me the Bulls will work out a sign and trade with Ben Gordon? If not, what is the Bulls next move?

John Hollinger: (3:18 PM ET ) Sign-and-trade of Gordon, with Hinrich moving tot he 2, is unquestionably the most logical move for Chicago. They just need to find the right team for him, which is the hard part -- he doesn't fit easily for a lot of teams.

Hinrich has shown he can guard two guards and might do so better when he doesn't have to expend energy bringing the ball up. Also if Rose is the distributor everyone thinks he is, I've always thought he could thrive as mostly a spot up shooter on offense. I'd still prefer someone who can create a double team to get him open looks but why not see how this works, unless a great trade offer comes along?

I still don't think Gordon should be our starting shooting guard long term, especially if he wants 10 million a year still. Does anyone think Gordon is as valuable as Antawn Jamison? If we can get someone to take him in a sign and trade for something valuable (David Lee, perhaps?) then do so, otherwise I expect he'll sign the one year qualifying offer and he can be our sixth man and maybe if he succeeds we can get something for him around the trading deadline.

Hinrich or Gordon to New York for Randolph?

bullsfanhongkong — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:25:53 -0000

I'm living in New York for the summer and have been hearing some disturbing rumors being talked about a move involving Zach Randolph. I work with a bunch of Knicks fans and they have been gloating about how they are going to unload Zach Randolph on the Bulls. I've seen rumors on http://thehoopdoctors.com/online/?p=88, and there was some chatter on ESPN 1050 about a potential deal. It would be either Hinrich or Gordon along with Drew Gooden for Z-Bo and Malik Rose. I remember last summer there was a lot of debate among BaBers on Randolph, and I can only hope we pass up this deal. He obviously help in the some of the areas that Z-Bo would help, but taking minutes away from Tyrus seems ludicrous to me. Although we want to unload Hinrich, I don't want to bring somebody back that would push Tyrus to the bench, especially after all of my dreams involving Rose to Tyrus alley-oops.

The only good news that I have found with the Knicks, is that they are interested in bringing in Duhon. I would love to listen to Knicks fans whine about the same things we hated about him. Can you imagine what kind of pictures of him would be online if Duhon was living in NYC? That would be priceless.

Tyrus Thomas, Shawn Kemp, and the Future

Scotter — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 06:45:11 -0000

After the 2006/2007 season, I sat down with the Basketball-Reference player season finder to look for players that had similar rookie seasons to Tyrus Thomas in order to understand how he might develop. Only one other player of any age had such an extreme rookie season in terms of both good things like blocks, steals, rebounds, freethrow attempts, and bad things like turnovers and personnel fouls with at least 800 minutes played. That other player was Shawn Kemp. Kemp was also the most similar player to Tyrus according to John Hollinger's similarity score system, he'd have to be given how rare their combination of statistics and attributes were. That they both entered the league as raw super athletic 20 year old PFs made the comparison only more intriguing. I discussed this similarity a year ago in a review of Tyrus's rookie season, and thought it was time to reflect on Tyrus's season and check back in with the Kemp comparison. I had hoped to see Tyrus get something close to the 30 minutes per game and 66 starts that Kemp received in his 2nd season. Seattle made the decision to trade Xavier McDaniel 15 games into Kemp's 2nd season to open up playing time for him. The Bulls management failed to make a similar decision. I was against the Joe Smith signing simply because it was an easy excuse for Skiles to not play Tyrus, and unfortunately my fears were realized and and Tyrus only received 27 starts and played 1100 fewer minutes than Kemp did in his 2nd season.

Kemp and Thomas

I still think Thomas is capable of having a similar impact to Kemp. They're similar players, not exact copies of each other. And it's probably important to highlight the differences now, especially for the sake of Tyrus doubters. As this biography piece with some great links details, Shawn Kemp was a McDonald's All-American and was recruited by the power house schools including home state Indiana. Kemp had his big growth spurt during his 1st three years of HS and was done growing after his junior year, and played the post in HS. Kemp accepted a scholarship to Kentucky, but failed to score high enough on his SATs to play as a freshman. At Kentucky he was put on probation for pawning necklaces belong to Sean Sutton a teammate and coach Eddie Sutton's son. According to Kemp he pawned them as a favor for a fellow teammate, but refused to finger that player since he was leaving school anyway. After transferring to a community college, Kemp declared for the NBA without playing any college ball. The story was different for Tyrus according to Draft Express.

In high school, Thomas was only 5-11 as a freshman. He only played organized basketball in his junior and senior years and never really built up enough recruiting hype to be considered a top 100 prospect. As a junior he was a mere 6-6 and 190 pounds, and when he officially committed to LSU they did not initially even have a scholarship for him. One later opened up when a JUCO recruit was kicked off his team and his scholarship offer was rescinded. Thomas grew to 6-7 ½, 200 pounds as a high school senior, and averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds and six blocks per game, good enough only for the all-second team in Louisiana. He was forced to redshirt his freshman year at LSU after injuring his neck, and grew to 6-9, 215 pounds over that year.

Tyrus was clearly more of a late bloomer than Kemp. Kemp was 6'8.75" barefoot when he was drafted and Tyrus was 6'7.25", although it seems likely that Tyrus has made up some of that gap.

But, I obviously don't expect Tyrus to become a 256 lb. PF/C like Kemp. I don't expect Tyrus to ever play with the power that Kemp did. Statistically, I don't expect Tyrus to score as much as Kemp did or as efficiently. Tyrus won't be the offensive rebounding force that Kemp was. I do believe that Tyrus has a chance to make up for some of that the offensive gap on the defensive end. Tyrus has more natural defensive instincts, superior timing as a shot blocker, and a better feel for playing the passing lanes. He's also a better passer offensively. I believe in the end Tyrus has a chance to have a similar overall impact to Kemp, but the bigger point that I'm making is that Tyrus will likely continue to develop similarly to Kemp. Kemp provides an entry point for discussing Tyrus present and future.

I was drawn to this comparison because of statistics. But, it became clear after doing research that the similarities extend beyond the statistics and their games to their personalities both on and off the court. On the court there is the emotional demonstrative style of play. Sam Smith has often compared Tyrus to Kemp. And a lot of what Sam wrote and said about Tyrus shows up in Kemp as well. Players that didn't trust easily, that didn't interact well with the media, and that seemed to have a sense of entitlement to go with some clear immaturity, but also someone that teammates would defend. A player that interacts incredibly well with children.

Starting with his Seattle Sonics tenure in 1989, Shawn dressed like Santa and gave out food and toys to children of the poor. Crowds of adoring kids came out to see Santa Kemp; he returned their affection with a priceless gift. Shawn took these kids seriously; he helped them, he joked with them, he even played ball with them.

As I read quotes from a young Kemp, it struck me how easily I could envision Tyrus saying similar things. And the descriptions of behavior fit as well. There's clearly a similarity in personality as well as ability.

Comparing Their Games

There are some similarities in there games as well. Probably the biggest similarity is that they both want to grab the rebound and dribble up the court themselves and make something happen with the ball. When I put in game tape of the 96' finals to refresh my memories of Kemp for this post, I was surprised how many times Kemp would grab the rebound and push the ball himself. And just like Tyrus, he would always want to dribble at least once before passing the ball to a guard after a rebound. Any of the Kemp highlight clips will show him taking the ball coast to coast. Both have been effective doing it even though it drives coaches and Johnny Red crazy because it always has the potential to end ugly. They share a fondness for spin moves. Kemp also had a Tyrus like tendency to not run the floor hard and would be the last one up the court on offense. Kemp like Tyrus so far always struggled with mistakes, especially turnovers and fouls. The fouls prevented him from ever playing 34+ minutes per game in his prime. Kemp didn't need a lot of moves to be effective. He didn't do much with his left hand inside. He pretty much would turn over his left shoulder and jump over his defender in the post and shoot with his right hand or dunk it if he could. And he would face up around the FT line and either take the open jumper, pull up of the dribble for a very short jumper, or get all the way to the basket or to the FT line. Tyrus has shown potential with his jumpshot and right handed jump hook. He has the ability to master those simple things enough to eventually average an efficient 15-17 points per game. He could average 15 points on just his current shot attempts if he had a 50% FG and played 35 min/g.

The Statistical Comparison

If you look at their rookie seasons, you can see the unique similarities and the key differences statistically. The same defensive rebound rate and the same extremely high foul rate. Both had high rates of steal and blocks with Tyrus out performing Kemp in those areas. And then Kemp slightly out performing Tyrus all offensive areas, in TS%, in offensive rebound rate, and in turnover rate with a slightly higher usage rate. Given there similarities, I thought it was likely that Tyrus would improve in the same ways that Kemp did in his 2nd season. When I began to do my research, I expected that Tyrus's lack of playing time and poor FG% had killed the comparison between the players. However when I looked at their 2nd seasons, I found that their rate statistics changed from year one to year two similarly in nearly every category.

Player	Age	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	Usg%	ORtg	DRtg	PF
Shawn Kemp	20	1120	15.9	53.1	0.481	14.7	21.8	18.1	3.4	2.1	4.0	17.8	22.4	103	105	6.6
Tyrus Thomas	20	966	14.8	52.1	0.475	10.6	21.1	15.9	6.6	2.4	6.2	20.8	20.9	95	93	6
Player	Age	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	Usg%	ORtg	DRtg	PF
Shawn Kemp	21	2442	17.6	55.1	0.509	12.9	20.5	16.6	8.5	1.6	3.3	15.5	22.4	109	106	4.7
Tyrus Thomas	21	1330	14.6	48.6	0.424	8.4	21.1	14.5	11.0	1.9	4.2	13.0	19.7	101	103	4.6

Look at the similar changes across the board. Their ORB% rates both declined by about 2%. Their DRB% both stayed about the same. Their AST% both went up about 5%. Their STL% and BLK% both declined. Their TO% rates declined with a huge decline for Tyrus, which is probably an indication that Tyrus was too passive offensively last season. And their USG% stayed about the same with both producing six more points per 100 possessions than they did the year before even with Tyrus's decline in FG%. And finally their PF/36 min decreased significantly. That's similar changes in nearly every category, except for FG%. So the similarity between the two players held together pretty well. Now that Kemp's 1st NBA coach, Bernie Bickerstaff, has joined the Bulls coaching staff, I'd be interested in his thoughts on this comparison.

Now let's address the elephant in the room, Tyrus's FG% last season. Tyrus FG% decline wasn't quite the disaster that it looks like. Almost all of Tyrus's decline in FG% is due to decreased dunk opportunities. He had 82 dunks as a rookie and only 58 last season, while playing more than an additional 350 minutes. Dunks made up 29% of his FGA as a rookie, but only 14% of his FGA last season. A decline in dunk% should have been expected, but not one of this magnitude. For one thing the lobs to Thomas for easy dunks pretty much disappeared last season. In a decent offense around 20% of Tyrus's FGA should be dunks. I should also note that Kemp was playing on a team with a top ten offense. His FG% on non-dunk inside shots didn't improve from 33%, but he took fewer assisted shots (58% to 44%). That implies that in order for him to maintain the same FG%, he had to improve his skills some. The average FG% on assisted close shots has been found to be 12% higher than unassisted close shots, this would be especially true in Tyrus's case. And he did improve very specific skills. His right handed jump hook from the right block was particularly consistent, probably because it was his one move post move in college. He made shots around the basket that he wouldn't of made as a rookie. But, obviously his biggest improvement was as a jump shooter. As has been said before, he went from making 20% of his jump shots to making 35% of his jump shots. I think the hotzones charts show this even better. Rookie year and 2nd year. He was particularly consistent all year from the 3 zones at the top of the key where he shot 43%, the same % as Joe Smith last season. So his significant drop in FG% wasn't a failure to improve. If the % of his FGA that were dunk attempts fell from 29% to just 22%, instead of 14% then Tyrus would have had a similar FG% to his rookie season, despite taking 40% more jump shots. If the team is better offensively as expected and his FG% doesn't return to at least close to his rookie year 47.5% next season then I'll start to be be worried.

This is a big year for Thomas, especially if the team finally commits to letting him play through some mistakes and gives him a consistent 26+ min/g. Many NBA players really improve in their 3rd year. Despite the clear flaws in his game, Thomas has still managed to be an effective player as is. He managed to post consecutive 14 PERs, despite his TOs as a rookie and his FG% as a 2nd year player. He had the 2nd best adjusted and unadjusted plus minus on the team. He had the 3rd best Roland rating last season, and was 4th as a rookie. On offense with Tyrus on the court has been just as good as when he's off the court, and the team has been significantly better on defense in both of Tyrus's seasons with him on the court. It may not be pretty, but he gets the job done right now as is. Consider what he can do offensively as his shot improves, he develops consistency with his post moves, and he's actually put in positions to succeed offensively.

If we stay with Kemp as a developmental model then there are few things to look for. Some of the key trends in Kemp's development were rises in ORB%, STL%, and BLK% from the 2nd to the 3rd year. A slight increase in USG% and a big jump in DRB%, which is probably an indicator of gaining strength and bulk. With TO% and the fouling rate holding steady. Kemp also broke the 20 PER barrier. Given the limited minutes he played last season I'm not incredibly confident that we'll see the same improvements in Tyrus's statistics next season and at this point I'll believe Tyrus is going to get consistent minutes when I finally see it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see significant improvement. And if it happens it's likely to be in the same areas as Kemp, along with at least a restoration of Tyrus's FG%.

Josh Smith Enters the Picture

After Tyrus's 2nd season it's worth talking about a 2nd comparison. Tyrus often gets compared to Josh Smith because of their very similar size and athletic ability. That comparison didn't make much sense based on Tyrus's rookie season. Tyrus was a much better rebounder, and had a much higher rate of steals, turnovers, and fouls. After Tyrus's 2nd season, Smith at least enters the picture. Here's Josh Smith's statistics.

Season	Age	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	Usg%	ORtg	DRtg	PF
2004-05	19	2050	15.4	50.6	45.8	7.9	18.6	13.0	10.2	1.5	5.4	16.0	18.4	100	107	2.8
2005-06	20	2559	15.5	50.0	44.7	8.0	17.2	12.5	12.2	1.3	6.2	15.2	18.9	103	108	3.7
2006-07	21	2647	18.3	50.6	45.8	7.4	21.0	14.1	16.3	2.0	6.1	16.3	24.1	99	102	3.3
2007-08	22	2873	19.0	52.0	46.8	6.6	20.4	13.5	16.6	2.3	5.9	15.5	25.0	102	103	3.4

The obvious similarities are steal and block rates matched by very few players and a poor FG% for a player getting half his shots in the paint. Smith looked more similar to Tyrus once I took into account that Smith didn't play significant minutes at PF until his 3rd year when he was 21. That changes how Smith's statistics for his first two seasons should be looked at in comparison to Tyrus's. If Smith was playing PF from the start it's possible his defensive rebound rate would have been around 20% like Tyrus. His STL% also would likely have been at least closer to 2% from the start. The key differences are a steady turnover rate for Smith and a lack of foul trouble that separates Tyrus and Kemp from Smith along with better offensive rebounding.

Tyrus's Future

I have come to see Tyrus's likely future as something between Smith and Kemp offensively. He's not going to be the perimeter player Smith is offensively or the post player that Kemp was. This is another example where I'm glad Tyrus is a player that didn't come into the league shooting jump shots. That would have led him down the Josh Smith path of launching 3s at a 25% clip. Tyrus's passing role should be closer to Smith's AST% somewhere between 14-18%. He really is good at making the post entry pass and finding players for easy baskets. He's a better offensive rebounder than Smith, but he'll never approach Kemp. Defensively he's closer to Smith as a shot blocker, but more like Kemp in terms of being able to defend his man in the post and stopping penetration in help defense, which is part of the reason for the higher foul rate for Thomas and Kemp. I think most people would be satisfied if Tyrus turned out to be something between Josh Smith and Shawn Kemp. Obviously the closer he gets to Kemp in terms of impact the better, and this next season should be telling. Smith has barely improved as a player over four seasons. He still only shot 29% on 2P jump shots last season. His TO% and his shot selection haven't improved either. Next season we should have a better idea of which path Thomas is following, but for right now it looks more like Kemp's.

Vinny has talked about putting players in a position to succeed. For Tyrus that means being kept close to the basket on defensive the majority of the time. Despite all the defensive mistakes, the defense has been objectively better with Tyrus on the floor. 4.0 and 3.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor in his two seasons. On offense he needs to be involved in the play, either by playing in the pick and roll with Rose or with the ball in his hands creating on his own. Tyrus is never going to be great off the ball on offense. That means taking the risk of letting him create on offense. Getting him the ball on the right block or isolated at the left elbow when he has a mismatch. It means giving him the freedom to pull down a rebound and push the ball up the floor himself occasionally. And if the other players actually run the floor with him then more good than bad will happen. Eventually running some pick and rolls with Tyrus handling the ball with Deng as the screener. I watched Seattle runnng pick and rolls with Kemp handling and Schrempf as the screener in the 96' Finals. And if you've watched summer league last summer, you should have seen some of this from Tyrus in his three games. There's actually no other player on the roster that I'd rather isolate inside of 15 feet. I know he'll drive people crazy that are more focused on the mistakes than the good he can create with the ball. What's the good? 1st, Tyrus gets to the FT line on a team that doesn't and he shoots a sold FT% now. 2nd, Tyrus is the kind of passer that gets other players easy baskets inside. Over 50% of his assists were on inside shots by far the highest% on the team as well as the highest % of assists that resulted in dunks. It's a statistic that for the most part separates the guys making the routine pass for a jump shot like Kirk Hinrich from the guys who are drawing help defenders and making plays with their passing. Aaron Gray owes a lot of his best offensive performances to Tyrus getting him the ball.

I'm not suggesting that giving Tyrus the ball should be an every time down the court thing, but it should be part of the mix. With opportunities, I'm confident Tyrus will eventually improve as a finisher as he improves his skill level and more importantly understands what he can and can't do. And knowing that he'll get the ball back if he passes out of the post would help too. I don't expect everyone to share my optimism when it comes to Tyrus. But, know that my optimism comes from watching him as closely as any fan and taking a very extensive look at the numbers. If the new Bulls coaching staff actually trust and put faith in Tyrus in this way, I believe both they and the Bulls coaching staff will be rewarded.

(EDIT: I thought it might be helpful to post Hollnger's projections for Tyrus's 07/08 season to give you a better of the degree to which Tyrus was expected to improve)

SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2006-07	.475	.606	15.5	11.1	1.7	52.1	8.1	19.1	18.9	15.9	14.80
2007-08	.423	.741	15.1	10.3	2.7	48.6	13.2	11.3	18.6	14.5	14.69
2007-08 (projected)	.482	.598	16.5	10.4	2.3	52.21	10.79	18.06	20.44	15.19	15.57

IN THE YEAR 2010... Free agent list, trade idea's.

kidronmusic — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:42:07 -0000

Wow, I was already of the opinion that the Bulls should be working to clear cap space for 2010, because, as has been widely reported, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, and Amare are all set to be free agents that year...

I don't think anybody outside of NY or Cleveland has a shot at Lebron, and I see Wade staying in Miami, but I figured, maybe Bosh or Amare would love to come and play with Derrick Rose.

But then I stumbled accross this article from hoopsworld... and it really opened my eyes... there is a ton of value on the market, and there is no reason that we shouldn't be aggressive getting ourselves in a position to have a huge summer that year. It really feels like the kind of market where we couldn't go wrong. We could miss on the 3 or 4 best players, and still land a superstar.

We're probably stuck with Hughes anyway, so hey, at least he is an expiring deal that year. And really, as much fun as it is to pick on Hughes and hate him in our posts (I have done it as much as anyone) It also isn't crazy to think that he will be better next season than he was last. He came halfway through the season last year to a team with selfish play, HORRIBLE coaching, and no communication.

This year, he has the benifit of a full offseason, better coaching (No way VDN is as bad as Boylan) and hopefully, a more unselfish team. Larry Hughes plays best as a slasher, and he cuts fairly well without the ball. The trouble is, he got lazy and started hoisting ill-advised jump shots a few years ago, and nobody has been able to talk him out of it. Maybe Rose finding him slashing to the hole, and VDN explaining his value as a slasher will help. It can't hurt.

Then, I would say trade for Camby, right now. The Nuggets are said to be willing to get rid of Camby. They are also said to be after Kirk. We are the most shallow at center right now. And Camby has another contract coming off the books for 2010. Give them Kirk for Camby. I like Camby in a even time split with Noah. Shot blocking and help defense will always have a place with me.

Maybe then... Nocioni for Al Harrington? Harrington wants out, and John Paxon likes him, or at least he did a few years ago (We were supposed to trade the draft pick that became Deng for Harrington) and I think, he could fit here. He is a bit of a defensive liability, but he can play both forward spots, and is a shooter and a scorer. He is a good fit for an uptempo pick and roll offense, which is what we're supposed to run next year. We would be losing a little defense in this trade, but gaining a more consistant shooter and scorer. Plus, he can post up a bit when playing against 3's. Also, much more importantly, it's another contract coming off the books before 2010.

Between Hughes, Camby, and Harrington, we would have $31,332,113.00 Coming off the books. We would have to resign Tyrus that year, but still, That might be enough to sign two max players if we structure the deals right. Or one max player and two stars.

We would be choosing a few from this list... in no particular order... Amare Stoudamire, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Mike Redd, Tyson Chandler, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Tracey McGrady, Shaquille O'Neal, Brad Miller, Stephen Jackson, Jermaine O'Neal, Mike Miller, Rip Hamilton... and on and on, click the Hoopsworld link, it's fantastic.

Elton Brand Back in Chicago?

#23 — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:00:25 -0000

Elton Brand just opted out of his contract and he will be looking for a new team.

Elton Brand and Corey Maggette opted out of the final season of their contracts with the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday, the first day they were allowed to do so, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Both will become among the most attractive free agents on the market.

Brand, 29, played only eight games last season after suffering a ruptured Achilles' tendon, but he has averaged 20.3 points and 10.2 rebounds in nine NBA seasons. He was owed $16.4 million had he stayed in the final year of his Clippers contract.

Could Elton Brand be coming home to Chicago? Could the Bulls pick up that low post scorer without trading anything?

The Bulls are definitely going to be considering this off season how they could get a low post scorer on this team and bring home Brand would make the Bulls scary the next 4 seasons and we still have trade options.

I think we will make a serious offer for him, what do you guys think? Do you want him? Is he worth it?

Rose to be introduced Mon @ 11am

smash! — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 03:33:36 -0000

The Chicago Bulls will hold a press conference at the United Center on Monday at 11 am to introduce top draft pick Derrick Rose. Comcast Sportsnet will cover it live. The Bulls will unveil Rose's jersey adorned with the number 1, not 25 as his high school coach Robert Smith suggested last week. You can already buy one online at Bulls.com... look for the only jersey that's not on sale.

Hopefully this press conference will bode better for Derrick than the last one he was supposed to attend. ;)

Thinking about the Future and the 90s Sonics

Scotter — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 01:08:01 -0000

[From the FanPosts. A very fun and interesting read. -ed.]

The events of the last few weeks has me thinking about the Seattle Supersonics of the 1990's. They had the #2 overall pick in the 1990 draft, which they used to select Gary Payton after Derrick Coleman went 1st overall. Payton joined a team that had just missed the playoffs with 41 wins after losing in the 2nd round the year before. He also joined a team with a collection of good players, but no stars, and a raw 2nd year athletic PF in Shawn Kemp. The Sonics made the playoffs in Payton's 1st season, the 2nd round in his 2nd seasons, and all the way to game 7 of the Western Conference finals in his 3rd season. That 3rd season was the beginning of a six year run where the Sonics won at least 55 games, averaging 59.5 wins. They finished in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency every season. According to Basketball-Reference's rating system, the Sonics never finished with worse than the league's 3rd best regular season during the six year run. These Sonics had some famous playoff failures, most notably losing to the 8th seed Nuggets in 1994 only eclipsed by the Mavericks exiting the 1st round at the hand of the Warriors. Still the Sonics were good enough to compete for a championship and with different fortune could have won one. And there's some similarities to what the Bulls are now trying to accomplish.

Gary Payton is a different player than Derrick Rose, but there are some similarities in terms of being a PG with physical advantages, but not a developed jumpshot. But, the bigger similarity is that the Bulls are asking Rose to do what Payton did. To join a team with established playoff level talent as a somewhat raw top 2 overall draft pick and become not only the best player on the team, but also the team leader. It took Payton time. He didn't average double digit points per game until his third season. He only had a PER of 13 in his 1st two years. And only averaged 13.5 points and 4.9 assists when the Sonics went to the Western Conference Finals in his third year. It wasn't until his fifth season that Payton established himself as both the best player on the team and the team leader. I don't think it will take Rose that long, but if he struggles Payton is an example to keep in mind. Seattle also did the right thing by starting him the entire time and playing him close to 30 minutes per game even during those 1st two seasons.

Last summer I wrote about Shawn Kemp having what was really the only similar rookie season to Tyrus Thomas. A comparison that was more interesting because of their similarities as raw 20 year old athletic power forwards. Those similarities were actually still present, despite Tyrus's disappointing 2nd season and Kemp's solid 15 and 8 2nd season. But, that's it's own fanpost. Let me summarize by saying that a Shawn Kemp like impact is still possible for Tyrus. And I see the Bulls future success tied to Rose and Thomas in the same way that Seattle's was tied to Payton and Kemp.

In addition Deng is actually a pretty similar player to Detlef Schrempf in terms of never being an effective #1 offensive option or efficiently averaging 20+ points per game. But, Deng like Schrempf can be a very efficient 3rd option averaging close to 20 points per game. Schrempf shot a very good 3 point %, but never took many 3 point shots. It's that type of role where's he's the third best player on the team that's perfect for Deng.

I also find it interesting what Seattle did with with the SG position. While Payton and Kemp were getting up to speed, Seattle relied on a one dimensional scorer in Ricky Pierce to be the team's leading scorer. In the 2nd half of Seattle's run, Seattle used a former 20 point per game scorer and undersized SG in Hersey Hawkins as a very efficient fourth option. If you're primarily a shooter, it's easier to make that transition from 1st option to 3rd or 4th option like Ray Allen did last season. If Gordon is re-signed then I'd anticipate that type of evolution in role. If the team is winning, while Gordon's role decreases I think he'll be fine. And if not then he's a much easier to replace when the team needs less scoring from that position a few years from now. If I'm Paxson, I think hard about paying Gordon more to get him on a shorter three year contract. The team does need his scoring in the short term.

Seattle's big problem has been the center position ever since my third cousin left for Milwaukee in 1986. In addition to George Karl mixing and matching Sam Perkins with the likes of Benoit Benjamin, Michael Cage, Ervin Johnson, Bill Cartwright, and Jim McIlvaine in their quest for a starting center. If only they had been able to draft Mouhamed Sene a decade earlier. This is where Noah can be difference maker. One of the reasons for Seattle's problems in the playoffs is that despite being a top ten defense, they were a below average defensive rebounding team. In the playoffs where it's harder to force turnovers, defensive rebounding becomes more important. That shouldn't be a problem area for the Bulls as it wasn't over the last few years, finishing in the top ten from 04/05 through 06/07, and nearly everyone in the rotation is at least an average defensive rebounder for their position.

I thought these were interesting similarities. I'm not suggesting Seattle is a blue print to follow, but it's an interesting precedent for what the Bulls are trying to do over the next couple of years. There are some similar dynamics at work. Obviously if there is a 2010 free agent miracle then the complexion of the team will greatly change. But, I think starting lineup of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Thomas, and Noah works. They'll be some obvious differences at the individual level, but the sum of the parts could be something very similar to what the Sonics had in terms of overall impact. Anyway, I thought it was a comparison worth making.

Watch D Rose Memphis March Madness Games

AFireInside661 — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:06:08 -0000

http://www.ncaasports.com/mmod/player

Now that it's been official we can all watch the Memphis March Madness tourney games. i didn't want to watch them all before and get all my hopes up and then maybe draft beasley(i'd still be happy) but now that he's a bull we can all do our homework and watch thjem. D ROSE runnin' the point is pretty exciting, enjoy.

thanks for whoever found these on demand games before.